Uncertainty

Read Case 6.3: Electronic Timing System for Olympics on pages 275-276 of the textbook.  For this assignment, you allure  assess and use the set-right prop hireling to unfold a judgment tree as feeling in Dissect “a” of Case 6.3. Analyze and engage the best judgment making arrangement to get answers and weak explanations for magnitude “a”, “b”, “c”, and “d”. The answers and explanations can be placed in the identical Excel instrument as the judgment tree. Develop a judgment tree that can be used to reresolve Chang’s tenor. You can usurp in this dissect of the tenor that she is using EMV (of her net avail) as a judgment measure. Build the tree so that she can invade any esteems for p1, p2, and p3 (in input cells) and automatically see her optimal EMV and optimal temporization from the tree. If p2 = 0.8 and p3 = 0.1, what esteem of p1 makes Chang lukewarm betwixt renouncing the device and going afront after a while it? How abundant would Chang advantageousness if she knew for indubitable that the Olympic construction would pledge her the agree? (This pledge would be in hardness singly if she were happy in unfolding the effect.) Assume p1 = 0.4, p2 = 0.8, and p3 = 0.1 Suppose now that this is a relatively big device for Chang. Therefore, she decides to use expected advantageousness as her measure, after a while an exponential advantageousness operation. Using some criterion and mistake, see which waste tolerance changes her primal judgment from “go afront” to “abandon” when p1 = 0.4, p2 = 0.8, and p3 = 0.1.